Sunday, January 17, 2010

Brown v. Coakley

Scott Brown is changing the game in the Massachusetts special election to fill the seat vacated when Ted Kennedy died. The latest PPP poll has Brown up by 5. If Brown were to win, it would have massive repercussions:

  • First win by a Republican Senator in Massachusetts in 40 years
  • Democrats lose filibuster-proof 60th Senate vote
  • Shock waves go through Democrats up for election in 2010 (if a Dem can lose in the People's Republic of Massachusetts, where can't he lose?)

The Intrade markets involved in these issues have been active lately, of course. Currently, the market predicts a brown victory at about a 2-1 spread, and that's up from about even just days ago. Brown still seems to have all the momentum. The question of whether the federal government will administer a public option health care plan has dropped from 10% to around 2% since the Brown surge.

The election is Tuesday. Athwart History will certainly be watching closely.

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