And it's Toomey in Pennsylvania. Fantastic news.
Also looks like Kirk wins in Illinois!
Fiorina couldn't pull it off in California. Too bad, but not unexpected.
Tuesday, November 2, 2010
6 Left in the Senate
It's 49-45 in the Senate, with 6 left uncalled: Colorado, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Washington, Illinois and California. Republicans would have to win them all to have a clear 51-seat majority: don't count on that. Currently the GOP leads in PA (Toomey's up 52-48 now!), WA and IL (go Kirk!), but losing everywhere else. If that holds, it'll just match my prediction: a 7-seat pickup.
Early Returns Are In...
Toomey and Sestak separated by 2,000 votes. That one could go late into the night.
CNN just called it for Ron Johnson over Russ Feingold. Yea!!! Earlier today I was cleaning up some old email and realized that I was on a Feingold email list back into 2009. Reading over some of the emails I didn't even see Johnson's name mentioned six or eight months ago. Came out of nowhere and knocked off a Democratic stalwart. That one's got to sting.
Manchin winning in WV - too bad, but we saw that coming. He's been leading consistently in polls the last couple of weeks.
Buck losing in Colorado by 5%. Not good.
Exit polls just coming in from California and Washington - Fiorina down 53-43 and Rossi down 52-46.
And just saw Kirk up 48-47 in Illinois!
CNN just called it for Ron Johnson over Russ Feingold. Yea!!! Earlier today I was cleaning up some old email and realized that I was on a Feingold email list back into 2009. Reading over some of the emails I didn't even see Johnson's name mentioned six or eight months ago. Came out of nowhere and knocked off a Democratic stalwart. That one's got to sting.
Manchin winning in WV - too bad, but we saw that coming. He's been leading consistently in polls the last couple of weeks.
Buck losing in Colorado by 5%. Not good.
Exit polls just coming in from California and Washington - Fiorina down 53-43 and Rossi down 52-46.
And just saw Kirk up 48-47 in Illinois!
Early Election-Day Observations
Concerning the election today, a few early observations:
1. My polling location was nearly empty. I walked in, gave my name, got my card, and voted. No lines whatsoever. Here in blue-state New Jersey, where the biggest race is Little-Pallone, that's no big surprise. But perhaps is reason to hope for Little, a major underdog whose only hope is that her voters are much more enthusiastic than Pallone's.
2. Pallone has been running attack ads over the past week. This must indicate that he's at least a bit worried. If he was running a 30-point lead, he could safely run soft-focus ads talking about how great he is, and not worry about the tiny gnat buzzing around. But he's been forced to go after Little by name. It's probably not fair to say that he's running scared, but he's hearing footsteps.
3. WNYC (my local NPR affiliate) is talking about Christine O'Donnell and her gaffes this election season. A less relevant discussion it would be hard to imagine. Look, Democrats: she's going to lose, and deservedly so. How about talking about some close races?
1. My polling location was nearly empty. I walked in, gave my name, got my card, and voted. No lines whatsoever. Here in blue-state New Jersey, where the biggest race is Little-Pallone, that's no big surprise. But perhaps is reason to hope for Little, a major underdog whose only hope is that her voters are much more enthusiastic than Pallone's.
2. Pallone has been running attack ads over the past week. This must indicate that he's at least a bit worried. If he was running a 30-point lead, he could safely run soft-focus ads talking about how great he is, and not worry about the tiny gnat buzzing around. But he's been forced to go after Little by name. It's probably not fair to say that he's running scared, but he's hearing footsteps.
3. WNYC (my local NPR affiliate) is talking about Christine O'Donnell and her gaffes this election season. A less relevant discussion it would be hard to imagine. Look, Democrats: she's going to lose, and deservedly so. How about talking about some close races?
The Election, Finally
I am going off today to vote for Anna Little in her insurgent campaign against Congressman Frank Pallone. She's an unabashed Tea Partier - here in New Jersey! - and seems like a decent enough sort. I'm no knee-jerk Tea Party supporter. I generally support their ideas, but they've put forth a few really poor candidates. Still, that's partially just because they're inexperienced in the world of politics, and that's not a bad thing. In fact, I'd say it's a good thing, net-net.
Little can't be any worse than Pallone, who - unlike many of his Democrat colleagues - has been campaigning fully in support of Obamacare, the Stimulus, and all the other boondoggles of the 111th Congress. The polling is unclear, but Little might just have a shot. In many ways, while this individual race isn't all that important, it can be a bellwether for the hoped-for Republican surge. For if Little wins, or even is within a point or two, then it's going to be a huge night.
More blogging tonight as polls come in. For now, this is my emblem:
Little can't be any worse than Pallone, who - unlike many of his Democrat colleagues - has been campaigning fully in support of Obamacare, the Stimulus, and all the other boondoggles of the 111th Congress. The polling is unclear, but Little might just have a shot. In many ways, while this individual race isn't all that important, it can be a bellwether for the hoped-for Republican surge. For if Little wins, or even is within a point or two, then it's going to be a huge night.
More blogging tonight as polls come in. For now, this is my emblem:
Monday, November 1, 2010
Prediction Time
In the Senate, I'm predicting a 7-seat gain for the GOP. Ignoring the seats with 10-point leads one way or the other, there are 8 seats in play, with 2 locked up for the GOP. Those 8 seats are: California (DEM+3), Colorado (GOP+4), Illinois (GOP+2), Nevada (GOP+4), Pennsylvania (GOP+5), Washington (GOP+1), West Virginia (DEM+3), and Wisconsin (GOP+7), where I'm giving the latest poll results in each case. Many of these polls are within the margin of error, but we can still calculate probabilities for each. Based on these numbers, we can find a joint probability distribution for various levels of GOP pickup.
The median of the distribution is at the high end of a 7-seat GOP pickup. It's certainly pretty likely that we'll have an 8-seat pickup, but playing the odds I'll predict +7.
In the House, it's more complicated since there are a lot more races. Also, polls are sketchier. But let's use the latest Real Clear Politics map to make some estimates. If we plug in some reasonable probabilities corresponding to "likely GOP", "leaning GOP" and "tossup", we get this distribution for GOP seats (here I'm ignoring insignificant tails):
The median of the distribution is for the GOP to have 240 seats, representing a 61-seat GOP pickup. There is a 96% chance the GOP will pick up between 50 and 76 seats, and a 90% chance they pick up between 52 and 69 seats. So I think we can count on the GOP having at least a 26-seat majority and it's not impossible for them to attain a 60-seat majority.
Of course, this will do them little good without the Senate or the White House. Those will have to wait until 2012.
| GOP Gain | Probability |
|---|---|
| +2 | negligible |
| +3 | 0.04% |
| +4 | 0.6% |
| +5 | 4.6% |
| +6 | 17.6% |
| +7 | 34.1% |
| +8 | 30.9% |
| +9 | 10.9% |
| +10 | 1.3% |
The median of the distribution is at the high end of a 7-seat GOP pickup. It's certainly pretty likely that we'll have an 8-seat pickup, but playing the odds I'll predict +7.
In the House, it's more complicated since there are a lot more races. Also, polls are sketchier. But let's use the latest Real Clear Politics map to make some estimates. If we plug in some reasonable probabilities corresponding to "likely GOP", "leaning GOP" and "tossup", we get this distribution for GOP seats (here I'm ignoring insignificant tails):
| GOP Seats | GOP Lead | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Under 223 | 0.07% | |
| 223 | 10 | 0.06% |
| 224 | 12 | 0.10% |
| 225 | 14 | 0.17% |
| 226 | 16 | 0.28% |
| 227 | 18 | 0.45% |
| 228 | 20 | 0.69% |
| 229 | 22 | 1.01% |
| 230 | 24 | 1.45% |
| 231 | 26 | 1.99% |
| 232 | 28 | 2.65% |
| 233 | 30 | 3.40% |
| 234 | 32 | 4.22% |
| 235 | 34 | 5.06% |
| 236 | 36 | 5.86% |
| 237 | 38 | 6.55% |
| 238 | 40 | 7.07% |
| 239 | 42 | 7.38% |
| 240 | 44 | 7.44% |
| 241 | 46 | 7.24% |
| 242 | 48 | 6.80% |
| 243 | 50 | 6.18% |
| 244 | 52 | 5.41% |
| 245 | 54 | 4.58% |
| 246 | 56 | 3.74% |
| 247 | 58 | 2.95% |
| 248 | 60 | 2.25% |
| 249 | 62 | 1.65% |
| 250 | 64 | 1.17% |
| 251 | 66 | 0.80% |
| 252 | 68 | 0.53% |
| 253 | 70 | 0.34% |
| 254 | 72 | 0.21% |
| 255 | 74 | 0.12% |
| 256 | 76 | 0.07% |
| Over 256 | 0.08% |
The median of the distribution is for the GOP to have 240 seats, representing a 61-seat GOP pickup. There is a 96% chance the GOP will pick up between 50 and 76 seats, and a 90% chance they pick up between 52 and 69 seats. So I think we can count on the GOP having at least a 26-seat majority and it's not impossible for them to attain a 60-seat majority.
Of course, this will do them little good without the Senate or the White House. Those will have to wait until 2012.
Menendez Wants to Allocate Your Collective Wealth
Bob Menendez (D-Cuba) makes the following assertion about tax cuts on ABC's This Week:
I see. According to Sen. Menendez, your money, my money, and your neighbor's money is all collective wealth to be allocated to the poor, the middle-class, or the wealthy as Sen. Menendez and Barack Obama decide. This is the face of the Democratic Party, folks. We've got to eject these clowns posthaste.
Here's the video. The interesting part starts around 9:15:
You can't talk about spending and being responsible about spending and then spend $4 trillion that you don't have of our collective wealth to the individuals who have the greatest wealth in the country.
I see. According to Sen. Menendez, your money, my money, and your neighbor's money is all collective wealth to be allocated to the poor, the middle-class, or the wealthy as Sen. Menendez and Barack Obama decide. This is the face of the Democratic Party, folks. We've got to eject these clowns posthaste.
Here's the video. The interesting part starts around 9:15:
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